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Correspondant à ces filtres : 68 articles
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- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
The measurement has to exist before the policy, because no earlier period can be collected afterwards
What a statistic can answer is decided by its base, its frequency, its territory and the date on its newest observation, and all four are fixed before any policy question arrives. The complication is that a record built this way reads as routine paperwork until something needs an answer it never arranged to have.
- ÉclairageMacroeconomics & Markets
Since 2022 the home-price index has risen 10.1 per cent while the median new house has sold for less each year
The index stands at 328.5 for 2025 against 298.3 for 2022, and the median price of a new house sold runs 433, 427, 419 and 415 thousand dollars over the same four readings. The two series cover different housing and report different statistics, so neither one corrects the other.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Productive capacity names a quantity that no series on this site reports
Of the fifty-eight annual series in the file behind this site, one carries the word capacity in its title, and it reports a percentage of capacity rather than an amount of it. What stands in are four measures of four different things, and they moved in different directions over the same three years.
- PerspectiveWorkforce & Skills
The institutions that match workers to work appear in no series that measures the match
Job openings averaged 11.2 million a month in 2022 and 7.1 million a month in 2025, and the quits rate ended the window at 2 percent of employment, under its 2020 reading. Prime-age participation finished at 83.6 percent, its highest, so whatever is weakening is not weakening everywhere the statistics look.
- ÉclairageTrade & Investment
Imports fell once in five years and that fall is the least reliable number in the series
Imports of goods and services dropped from 3.97 to 3.86 trillion dollars in 2023, the only decline in the run. Producer prices fell that same year, which means the one movement most often read as evidence of reshoring is the one that can least bear the reading.
- PerspectiveGovernance & Institutions
A state can only set a target on something its own accounts already count
A target can be written only on a quantity somebody already publishes, so the statistical system settles in advance which problems a government is able to own. The complication is that absence is not neutral: where no series covers a subject, the nearest published count is promoted into the gap, and the policy ends up governing whatever that count measures.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
The deficit was widest in 2020 and the policy rate at its floor in 2021, while both construction series made their largest single-year move in 2023
The M2 money stock added 2.84 trillion dollars between the 2020 and 2021 observations while construction spending on manufacturing plant added seven billion; plant spending's largest step, 77 billion, arrives in 2023. Nothing in these files records a decision, so the sequence is a pattern in the statistics and not evidence of how anyone chose.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
Fiscal space is created by the denominator, spent at the roll, and bounded by nothing the statistics publish
Federal debt rose 8.4 trillion dollars between 2021 and 2025 and ended 0.2 points lower as a share of GDP, because the denominator grew faster than the stock. A large part of that denominator was price, and the market yield on ten-year Treasury debt went from 0.89 to 4.29 percent.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
Institutional memory in economic policy is held in definitions, not in people
What an institution loses first is not an event but a definition: the unit a figure is stated in, the base year of an index, the rate regime a career was formed inside. Memory is not free either, because an assumption carried too long is its own failure, and only a written record separates the two.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Regulation can change what an asset does; only ownership decides that it exists
Ownership gives a state two rights no rule confers: the decision that an asset exists, and the claim on whatever is left over once it does. What complicates the case is price, because the ten-year Treasury rate averaged 0.89 percent in 2020 and 4.29 percent in 2025, and a state that owns must raise the money before it decides anything.
- ÉclairageEconomic Security
Two thirds of the M2 increase since 2020 arrived in a single year
The money stock is 4.26 trillion dollars larger than in 2020. Of that, 2.84 trillion came between 2020 and 2021, and the four years since have added half as much again, including the only contraction in the window.
- DécryptageTrade & Investment
Why agricultural export values move when the harvest does not
An export figure is a price multiplied by a quantity, reported as a single number. Reading it as a measure of how much food left the country confuses the two, and this explains what it takes to tell them apart.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Institutional quality is several separable capacities, and the score that ranks them is mostly a choice of weights
Operationally the term names separable things: a task specified, a cost stated, a time stated, and a published record of whether the work was done. A composite removes the units before it adds them, and on this site's own state index the weightings a person could defend move one jurisdiction across thirty places.
- CommentaireWorkforce & Skills
A national credential is built for a job market no state actually has
The Bureau's 2025 occupational file lists twelve local specialities for each of 51 jurisdictions, 612 rows holding 351 different occupations, and 204 of those appear on exactly one state's list. The same file records no credential at all, so an employer certificate would have to publish numbers a stranger can count before it could replace the system it criticises.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Industrial strategy is a decade-long commitment made by institutions that are not built to hold one
Spending on manufacturing plant rose from a yearly rate of 75 billion dollars in 2020 to 244 in 2024, lifting the factory share of all nonresidential building from 8.8 percent to 18.8. Manufacturing employment reached its high for these six years in 2023 and is lower now, which is what it looks like when a country can order buildings faster than the institutions to run them.
- PerspectiveStrategic Technology
Diffusion rather than invention is the binding step in technological change, and no series in the record counts it
Computer and electronic product output rose 21.1 index points between 2020 and 2025 while manufacturing output as a whole ended 2.7 points below its own 2017 base. Core capital-goods orders, the closest series in the record to the channel by which equipment reaches firms that do not make it, averaged 77 billion dollars a month in 2022 and the same in 2025.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
Two participation rates moved apart, and that gap is where ageing would enter the arithmetic
Headline participation gained 0.7 points between 2020 and 2025 while participation inside the 25-54 band gained 2.2, and the two rates divide by different populations. That gap is the shape an ageing population would take in a labour statistic, but none of these series counts anybody's age, so the shape is all it is.
- PerspectiveEconomic Security
A supply chain is governed on private books, and the public statistics reach only its edges
American business held an average of 2,663 billion dollars of inventory across 2025, 35.1 percent above 2020, and that buffer is the working instrument of resilience. The series records its size and nothing else: not who holds it, not against which supplier, not where the next tier sits.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Each instrument of economic statecraft has its own published series and the doctrine meant to rank them has none
Construction spending on manufacturing plant ran at 75 billion dollars a year in 2020 and 215 in 2025, while manufacturing output on a 2017 base of 100 ended the window at 97.3. Every instrument of statecraft has a published series, and the ranking that says which instrument yields when two collide has none.
- CommentaireMigration & Demography
The labour-force series do not record who arrived, and participation is not a substitute
No file on this site records a worker's place of birth, so nothing here can attribute a share of recent capacity to migration. The rate usually offered as a stand-in fell 0.2 points between 2023 and 2025 while prime-age participation rose 0.3 points to its six-year high of 83.6 percent, a divergence the two different populations can produce with nobody arriving at all.