CommentairesÉclairagesPerspectivesDécryptages
Type
Perspectives
Un point de vue réfléchi : un texte long dans lequel un praticien ou un chercheur chevronné expose une vue structurée d'une question structurelle, et dit d'où il écrit.
1 500–3 000 mots · Sources liées et notes ; une déclaration de position · Signé par son auteur
40 articles
Articles
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
The measurement has to exist before the policy, because no earlier period can be collected afterwards
What a statistic can answer is decided by its base, its frequency, its territory and the date on its newest observation, and all four are fixed before any policy question arrives. The complication is that a record built this way reads as routine paperwork until something needs an answer it never arranged to have.
- PerspectiveEnergy & Power
The stages of an energy transition that have to come first are the ones the national record does not count
The ten-year Treasury yield rose from 0.89 percent in 2020 to 4.29 in 2025 while crude ran from 39 dollars a barrel to 95 and back to 65, so both terms of a transition's first calculation moved in every year the plant was going up. The record that counts plant and vehicles closely does not count generation, transmission or interconnection at all.
- PerspectiveInfrastructure
The boundary of a public investment appraisal is drawn where the measurement stops
The capital cost in a public investment appraisal has a published national counterpart, nonresidential construction spending at 1309 billion dollars a year; the benefit stream it is weighed against has none. The discount rate decides the rest: at 4.29 percent a dollar arriving in year thirty is worth 28.4 cents, and at the 0.89 percent of 2020 it was worth 76.7 cents.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Productive capacity names a quantity that no series on this site reports
Of the fifty-eight annual series in the file behind this site, one carries the word capacity in its title, and it reports a percentage of capacity rather than an amount of it. What stands in are four measures of four different things, and they moved in different directions over the same three years.
- PerspectiveTrade & Investment
Foreign delegations come to Washington to meet a counterparty that is not there
Twenty of the fifty-one jurisdictions in the federal collections file levy all five of the taxes it names, and two levy only two of them. The body that decides whether a foreign project works is usually a state, and it is not in the room.
- PerspectiveWorkforce & Skills
The institutions that match workers to work appear in no series that measures the match
Job openings averaged 11.2 million a month in 2022 and 7.1 million a month in 2025, and the quits rate ended the window at 2 percent of employment, under its 2020 reading. Prime-age participation finished at 83.6 percent, its highest, so whatever is weakening is not weakening everywhere the statistics look.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Public capital is allocated by the form of the claim, and the only contest the statistics show is inside one construction total
Spending on manufacturing plant went from 75 billion dollars in 2020 to 244 in 2024 and 215 in 2025, while housing units authorised by permit ended the window 48 thousand below where they began. Neither total separates public money from private, and nothing in the record decomposes the federal balance into the claims that competed for it.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Public purchasing is an industrial instrument, and none of these series counts it as one
A government's order book transfers demand risk in a way a grant cannot, which is the reason it would work as industrial policy. What complicates the case is that the spending which is counted rose steeply, plant construction going from 75 billion dollars in 2020 to 244 in 2024, and manufacturing output is still below its 2017 base.
- PerspectiveGovernance & Institutions
A state can only set a target on something its own accounts already count
A target can be written only on a quantity somebody already publishes, so the statistical system settles in advance which problems a government is able to own. The complication is that absence is not neutral: where no series covers a subject, the nearest published count is promoted into the gap, and the policy ends up governing whatever that count measures.
- PerspectiveEconomic Security
Tell a ministry where to look, not where to go
Advice that names a destination expires the day the evidence moves. The six files behind any recommendation about the American economy carry six different as-of dates, and a ministry that was handed the conclusion cannot tell which one broke.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
The deficit was widest in 2020 and the policy rate at its floor in 2021, while both construction series made their largest single-year move in 2023
The M2 money stock added 2.84 trillion dollars between the 2020 and 2021 observations while construction spending on manufacturing plant added seven billion; plant spending's largest step, 77 billion, arrives in 2023. Nothing in these files records a decision, so the sequence is a pattern in the statistics and not evidence of how anyone chose.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
Fiscal space is created by the denominator, spent at the roll, and bounded by nothing the statistics publish
Federal debt rose 8.4 trillion dollars between 2021 and 2025 and ended 0.2 points lower as a share of GDP, because the denominator grew faster than the stock. A large part of that denominator was price, and the market yield on ten-year Treasury debt went from 0.89 to 4.29 percent.
- PerspectiveInfrastructure
An infrastructure delivery model allocates risk, capital and blame, and it reduces none of the three
A delivery model is a contract about where the risk, the capital and the accountability sit, and only two of those can be priced and sold. The ten-year yield moved 3.4 points in five years while the record of what was built stayed one undifferentiated line, so the comparison between models is one the public record cannot check.
- PerspectiveEconomic Security
Openness and security are being reconciled by narrowing one channel at both ends rather than by closing the economy
Two-way U.S. goods trade with mainland China ran at 58 billion dollars a month in 2022 and 35 billion in 2025, a fall of 39.7 percent, while total imports and exports of goods and services both rose across the same three years. The channel narrowed at both ends, and no series cited here records whether a screen decided any of it.
- PerspectiveMacroeconomics & Markets
Institutional memory in economic policy is held in definitions, not in people
What an institution loses first is not an event but a definition: the unit a figure is stated in, the base year of an index, the rate regime a career was formed inside. Memory is not free either, because an assumption carried too long is its own failure, and only a written record separates the two.
- PerspectiveDevelopment Finance
The development finance architecture measures itself in the lender's currency and the lender's year
Concessional lending is judged against a market rate, and market rates moved: the ten-year Treasury averaged 0.89 percent in 2020 and 4.29 in 2025, and the broad dollar index sits 9.6 points above its lowest reading, in 2021. The complication is that an institution unable to report a figure on signing day cannot be funded, which makes the mismatch a constraint rather than a failure of will.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Regulation can change what an asset does; only ownership decides that it exists
Ownership gives a state two rights no rule confers: the decision that an asset exists, and the claim on whatever is left over once it does. What complicates the case is price, because the ten-year Treasury rate averaged 0.89 percent in 2020 and 4.29 percent in 2025, and a state that owns must raise the money before it decides anything.
- PerspectiveEconomic Security
Commodity dependence is an exposure in the budget, and the conversion that ends it runs slower than the price cycle
Texas raises more severance tax than any other state, 8.00 billion dollars, and that is 8.9 percent of what Texas collects; the same tax is 47.2 percent of North Dakota's. The exposure therefore sits in the size of the rest of the base, and the spending that would widen one moves slowly: factory construction rose for four years, then fell.
- PerspectiveStrategic Technology
Technical standards decide admission where a tariff only sets a price, and nothing in the record counts admission
Goods exports to mainland China fell from 13 billion dollars a month in 2022 to 9 in 2025, and imports from 45 to 26. The series record that both legs shrank and attribute the fall to nothing, which is why a rulebook written years earlier cannot be told apart from a duty imposed last quarter.
- PerspectiveIndustrial Policy
Institutional quality is several separable capacities, and the score that ranks them is mostly a choice of weights
Operationally the term names separable things: a task specified, a cost stated, a time stated, and a published record of whether the work was done. A composite removes the units before it adds them, and on this site's own state index the weightings a person could defend move one jurisdiction across thirty places.