KommentareBefundePerspektivenErklärstücke
Thema
Macroeconomics & Markets
Money, prices, public finance and the markets that price them.
80 Beiträge
Beiträge
- KommentarIndustrial Policy
The industrial policy number nobody sets a target for
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector stands 18 percent above its 2017 base. No industrial programme claims that gain, none is measured against it, and it is the only number that decides whether domestic production survives domestic wages.
- PerspektiveRegional Development
Read a state government the way you would read a credit, not a brochure
State tax collections per resident run from 2,279 dollars in Alaska to 8,028 in Vermont, and the spread describes which layer of government collects rather than how heavily anyone is taxed. The useful questions are what the base is, what it is exposed to, and what the state does not levy at all.
- KommentarRegional Development
Four states now fund themselves on a price they do not set
Severance is 47.2 percent of North Dakota's state tax collections and 43.9 percent of Alaska's. That is not a revenue line. It is a position in a commodity, held by a government that has to write a budget every year.
- ErklärstückRegional Development
How a balanced-budget rule shapes what a state can offer
Almost every state has to close its books inside a single fiscal year. By the end you will know why that rule pushes economic development toward tax credits and away from cash, and what that swap costs.
- BefundWorkforce & Skills
Prime-age participation rose four years running, then held at 83.6 percent
The share of the 25 to 54 population in the labour force went from 81.4 percent in 2020 to 83.6 in 2024, a gain of 2.2 points, and 2025 came in at 83.6 again. The headline rate, which covers the civilian population rather than one age band, gained 0.7 points over the same six readings and fell in the final year.
- BefundWorkforce & Skills
The quits rate has fallen below where it stood in 2020, while job openings have not
The rate rose from 2.1 percent of employment in 2020 to 2.8 in 2022, then fell in each of the next three years to 2 percent, below where it began. Job openings peaked in the same year and remain above their own 2020 level, so the two halves of the picture no longer agree.
- BefundEnergy & Power
Crude has fallen back below its 2021 price and the all-commodities index has not
West Texas Intermediate averaged 95 dollars a barrel in 2022 and 65 in 2025, three dollars below its 2021 reading and thirty below the peak. The producer price index for all commodities peaked in the same year, sits 1.6 per cent below that peak, and rose 2.2 per cent in the year crude fell 15.6 per cent.
- BefundWorkforce & Skills
Broad underemployment has risen in each of the last two years, to its highest reading since 2021
The U-6 rate fell from 13.7 percent of the labour force in 2020 to 6.9 in 2022, held at 6.9 in 2023, and has since risen to 7.5 and then 8. The 1.1 points it has added from that floor exceed the 0.7 the headline unemployment rate has added from its own, but as a multiple of the headline rate the broad measure has narrowed since 2023.
- ErklärstückTrade & Investment
What a bilateral tax treaty changes for an investor
A tax treaty is not a tax cut. By the end of this you will know which government gives up what, why the permanent establishment article decides more than the rate articles do, and which taxes a treaty never reaches.
- ErklärstückInfrastructure
What a completion guarantee covers and when it falls away
Between financial close and the day a plant works, a project has debt and no revenue. A completion guarantee is the sponsor's promise to stand in that gap. By the end you will know what triggers its release, what it absorbs while it lasts, and why the release date is negotiated harder than the amount.
- KommentarDevelopment Finance
A development institution should give up the senior position and hold the first loss
The United States ran a current account deficit in every year from 2020 to 2025, averaging 147 billion dollars a quarter at the start of that window and 294 at the end, exactly twice as wide. An institution that gives up the senior position will report a smaller book and a worse loss record, and both are the point.
- KommentarIndustrial Policy
The order book everyone quotes is measured in dollars that changed size
New orders for durable goods reached 311.2 billion dollars in 2025, the highest reading in five years. It is a current-dollar figure stated as a monthly rate, and it is routinely read as neither of those things.
- PerspektiveDevelopment Finance
Financial depth changes what capital costs and not what a country is able to build
The policy rate moved 4.94 points between 2021 and 2023 and the thirty-year mortgage rate moved 3.85 over the same two years, which is what a deep system does. Across the same window manufacturing output stayed below its 2017 base in every reading.
- ErklärstückWorkforce & Skills
Personal income per head and the median wage measure different things
One is a mean taken over everybody, the other a middle taken over jobholders. By the end you will know why a state can look rich on one and ordinary on the other, and which question each figure answers.
- ErklärstückWorkforce & Skills
What a labour shortage claim needs before anyone can test it
A shortage is a claim that a market is not clearing at a stated price. By the end you will know the five things such a claim has to name, and why the same job carries different prices in different states.
- BefundMacroeconomics & Markets
Four fifths of the rise in new business applications since 2020 came in a single year
The weekly average went from 84 thousand applications in 2020 to 104 thousand in 2021, and the four years since have added five. The 2025 reading of 109 thousand is the highest of the six, and also the third rise in a series that has fallen in the year between each one.
- BefundMacroeconomics & Markets
The debt ratio fell for three years while the debt itself rose in every year the series records
Federal debt as a share of GDP fell from 122.3 percent in 2020 to 117.7 in 2023, then turned and reached 120.7 in 2025. The debt rose in every year the same file records, so what fell in those three years was the ratio and not the obligation.
- KommentarInfrastructure
The permit counts say permitting is not the binding constraint on American delivery
Housing units authorised by permit fell in each of the four years to 2025, from an annual rate of 1734 thousand units to 1431, while spending on manufacturing plant rose from an annual rate of 75 billion dollars in 2020 to 244 in 2024. Neither series records a waiting time, so neither can show a queue; plant spending fell 29 billion in 2025, the year the policy rate came down.
- BefundHousing & Urban Development
Two years of decline have taken the mortgage rate 0.21 points off its peak
The thirty-year fixed rate peaked at 6.81 per cent in 2023, and the two annual readings since are 6.72 and 6.6. The federal funds rate ended those same two years 0.81 points lower, nearly four times as far, though it rose before it fell.
- PerspektiveRegional Development
The occupation that concentrates pays above its local median in every jurisdiction, and the occupation that spreads pays above it in ten
Computer and mathematical work pays more than the middle job in all fifty-one jurisdictions; production work does so in ten, six of which hold the country's lowest median wages. Production is also the more evenly spread of the two, at or above the national share in 27 jurisdictions against 13.