Components of change · 2021–2024

Where People Went

A state’s population change is an accounting identity, not a verdict: births minus deaths, plus arrivals from other states, plus arrivals from other countries. Those three channels sum to the total, and in half the country they point in opposite directions. Reported as one number, they cancel — and the cancellation is usually the thing worth knowing.

25states pull opposite waysGaining through one migration channel while losing through the other.

18grow only on arrivals from abroadNet migration is positive; domestic migration is negative. Without international arrivals each of these states would be shrinking.

22record more deaths than birthsAcross the full 4-year window. For these states migration is not a supplement to growth; it is the only source of it.

Every state, decomposed

Bars are per 1,000 residents so states of different sizes can be read against one another; the columns give the underlying counts. Ordered by domestic migration — the channel that most directly reflects a choice between states. Three bars per row: domestic international births − deaths

Population change by channel, 2021–2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates: components of change.
#	State	Per 1,000 residents	Domestic	International	Births − deaths	Net change
1	IDIdaho	domestic migration +55.7 per 1,000; international migration +11.0 per 1,000; births minus deaths +9.9 per 1,000	+111,459	+21,971	+19,909	+153,339
2	SCSouth Carolina	domestic migration +54.7 per 1,000; international migration +11.0 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.2 per 1,000	+299,962	+60,351	−17,465	+342,848
3	MTMontana	domestic migration +44.6 per 1,000; international migration +2.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.0 per 1,000	+50,720	+2,579	−3,360	+49,939
4	DEDelaware	domestic migration +41.9 per 1,000; international migration +16.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths −1.8 per 1,000	+44,125	+17,684	−1,944	+59,865
5	NCNorth Carolina	domestic migration +34.8 per 1,000; international migration +16.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.7 per 1,000	+383,851	+180,579	+29,582	+594,012
6	FLFlorida	domestic migration +34.7 per 1,000; international migration +45.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths −4.1 per 1,000	+810,122	+1,056,301	−95,919	+1,770,504
7	MEMaine	domestic migration +33.7 per 1,000; international migration +9.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths −14.8 per 1,000	+47,322	+13,740	−20,747	+40,315
8	TNTennessee	domestic migration +32.8 per 1,000; international migration +10.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths −2.0 per 1,000	+237,368	+72,930	−14,148	+296,150
9	AZArizona	domestic migration +29.3 per 1,000; international migration +20.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +1.6 per 1,000	+222,465	+158,681	+12,311	+393,457
10	SDSouth Dakota	domestic migration +22.8 per 1,000; international migration +7.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths +9.3 per 1,000	+21,045	+6,601	+8,576	+36,222
11	TXTexas	domestic migration +22.2 per 1,000; international migration +26.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths +17.1 per 1,000	+693,979	+818,806	+534,981	+2,047,766
12	OKOklahoma	domestic migration +21.8 per 1,000; international migration +9.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths −0.0 per 1,000	+89,307	+40,635	−197	+129,745
13	NVNevada	domestic migration +21.7 per 1,000; international migration +21.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.3 per 1,000	+70,963	+71,351	+7,515	+149,829
14	ARArkansas	domestic migration +21.4 per 1,000; international migration +6.0 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.6 per 1,000	+66,039	+18,642	−11,212	+73,469
15	ALAlabama	domestic migration +21.2 per 1,000; international migration +7.5 per 1,000; births minus deaths −4.7 per 1,000	+109,375	+38,717	−24,356	+123,736
16	NHNew Hampshire	domestic migration +19.8 per 1,000; international migration +7.7 per 1,000; births minus deaths −6.2 per 1,000	+27,898	+10,850	−8,707	+30,041
17	GAGeorgia	domestic migration +17.3 per 1,000; international migration +15.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths +7.4 per 1,000	+193,886	+169,820	+83,160	+446,866
18	UTUtah	domestic migration +13.5 per 1,000; international migration +22.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths +27.1 per 1,000	+47,233	+77,786	+94,934	+219,953
19	WYWyoming	domestic migration +11.7 per 1,000; international migration +5.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths +0.2 per 1,000	+6,860	+3,010	+142	+10,012
20	VTVermont	domestic migration +9.6 per 1,000; international migration +9.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths −10.1 per 1,000	+6,228	+6,017	−6,543	+5,702
21	MOMissouri	domestic migration +6.9 per 1,000; international migration +9.4 per 1,000; births minus deaths −1.9 per 1,000	+43,293	+58,648	−11,763	+90,178
22	WVWest Virginia	domestic migration +6.3 per 1,000; international migration +4.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths −22.7 per 1,000	+11,089	+7,561	−40,259	−21,609
23	KYKentucky	domestic migration +6.0 per 1,000; international migration +15.4 per 1,000; births minus deaths −4.1 per 1,000	+27,734	+70,495	−18,756	+79,473
24	INIndiana	domestic migration +4.1 per 1,000; international migration +12.7 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.5 per 1,000	+28,556	+88,240	+17,521	+134,317
25	COColorado	domestic migration +4.0 per 1,000; international migration +13.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +10.6 per 1,000	+23,807	+82,822	+63,073	+169,702
26	WIWisconsin	domestic migration +0.5 per 1,000; international migration +10.6 per 1,000; births minus deaths −0.2 per 1,000	+2,916	+63,275	−1,316	+64,875
27	CTConnecticutabroad-sustained	domestic migration −1.0 per 1,000; international migration +25.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths +1.1 per 1,000	−3,522	+94,752	+4,088	+95,318
28	OROregonabroad-sustained	domestic migration −1.8 per 1,000; international migration +12.4 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.9 per 1,000	−7,602	+52,903	−16,692	+28,609
29	IAIowaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −2.5 per 1,000; international migration +15.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.8 per 1,000	−8,251	+49,594	+9,019	+50,362
30	OHOhioabroad-sustained	domestic migration −3.0 per 1,000; international migration +13.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.6 per 1,000	−35,266	+163,757	−42,230	+86,261
31	PAPennsylvaniaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −3.5 per 1,000; international migration +15.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths −5.4 per 1,000	−45,451	+198,274	−70,144	+82,679
32	VAVirginiaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −3.9 per 1,000; international migration +17.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +5.7 per 1,000	−34,634	+158,047	+49,930	+173,343
33	NMNew Mexicoabroad-sustained	domestic migration −4.1 per 1,000; international migration +14.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths −4.5 per 1,000	−8,713	+29,970	−9,512	+11,745
34	WAWashingtonabroad-sustained	domestic migration −4.2 per 1,000; international migration +25.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +7.7 per 1,000	−33,762	+206,184	+61,537	+233,959
35	MIMichiganabroad-sustained	domestic migration −6.2 per 1,000; international migration +16.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths −3.3 per 1,000	−63,064	+164,056	−33,860	+67,132
36	NENebraskaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −6.5 per 1,000; international migration +16.6 per 1,000; births minus deaths +11.0 per 1,000	−12,996	+33,236	+22,085	+42,325
37	MSMississippi	domestic migration −6.8 per 1,000; international migration +6.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths −5.1 per 1,000	−20,099	+19,910	−15,029	−15,218
38	KSKansasabroad-sustained	domestic migration −7.4 per 1,000; international migration +14.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths +4.2 per 1,000	−22,041	+42,004	+12,347	+32,310
39	RIRhode Islandabroad-sustained	domestic migration −7.4 per 1,000; international migration +24.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths −2.5 per 1,000	−8,258	+26,793	−2,761	+15,774
40	NDNorth Dakotaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −7.5 per 1,000; international migration +16.5 per 1,000; births minus deaths +12.9 per 1,000	−6,012	+13,135	+10,268	+17,391
41	MNMinnesotaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −8.0 per 1,000; international migration +13.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +8.3 per 1,000	−46,516	+80,796	+47,848	+82,128
42	MDMarylandabroad-sustained	domestic migration −18.4 per 1,000; international migration +24.5 per 1,000; births minus deaths +7.2 per 1,000	−114,948	+153,678	+45,232	+83,962
43	MAMassachusettsabroad-sustained	domestic migration −18.7 per 1,000; international migration +35.6 per 1,000; births minus deaths +3.3 per 1,000	−133,608	+254,194	+23,266	+143,852
44	NJNew Jerseyabroad-sustained	domestic migration −19.3 per 1,000; international migration +34.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths +9.0 per 1,000	−183,099	+326,287	+85,258	+228,446
45	DCDistrict of Columbiaabroad-sustained	domestic migration −20.2 per 1,000; international migration +49.3 per 1,000; births minus deaths +16.2 per 1,000	−14,213	+34,586	+11,354	+31,727
46	AKAlaska	domestic migration −24.2 per 1,000; international migration +15.0 per 1,000; births minus deaths +18.9 per 1,000	−17,930	+11,111	+13,999	+7,180
47	LALouisiana	domestic migration −27.1 per 1,000; international migration +12.8 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.2 per 1,000	−124,444	+58,919	+10,209	−55,316
48	ILIllinois	domestic migration −31.1 per 1,000; international migration +21.9 per 1,000; births minus deaths +2.2 per 1,000	−395,721	+278,149	+27,394	−90,178
49	HIHawaii	domestic migration −31.8 per 1,000; international migration +21.2 per 1,000; births minus deaths +7.1 per 1,000	−46,018	+30,616	+10,261	−5,141
50	CACalifornia	domestic migration −35.5 per 1,000; international migration +23.7 per 1,000; births minus deaths +9.9 per 1,000	−1,397,897	+932,858	+389,684	−75,355
51	NYNew York	domestic migration −45.0 per 1,000; international migration +26.1 per 1,000; births minus deaths +7.3 per 1,000	−893,537	+518,056	+144,748	−230,733

How this is built

Every figure is a published Census estimate, added up. Nothing is modelled, weighted or fitted, and no number here is CEFA’s opinion about a state. The three channels are reported separately by the Census and sum, with a small reconciling residual, to the change in the population estimate — which is why a part-to-whole chart is legitimate on this page and is refused on the State Development Index, whose pillars are independent scores that sum to nothing.

Rates are cumulative flow divided by the latest population estimate, times 1,000 — stated that way rather than as a sum of the published annual rates, which have four different denominators and cannot simply be added. Vintage-year 2020 is published for a partial period and carries no companion rate, so it is excluded rather than shown alongside four full years it cannot be compared with. A work of the U.S. government: no copyright subsists (17 U.S.C. §105).

The source file ↗