ComentáriosConstataçõesPerspectivasExplicativos
Arquivo
Correspondem a esses filtros: 27 textos
Textos
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
Since 2022 the home-price index has risen 10.1 per cent while the median new house has sold for less each year
The index stands at 328.5 for 2025 against 298.3 for 2022, and the median price of a new house sold runs 433, 427, 419 and 415 thousand dollars over the same four readings. The two series cover different housing and report different statistics, so neither one corrects the other.
- ConstataçãoTrade & Investment
The trade gap narrowed in one year of six, and 2025 is now the widest reading of the six
The deficit in goods and services widened from 53 billion dollars a month in 2020 to 75 in 2022, narrowed to 62 in 2023, then widened again to 78 in 2025. The current account, which counts investment income and transfers as well, moved the other way in the final year, so the two measures of the same external gap do not agree on which year is the widest.
- ConstataçãoEconomic Security
Two thirds of the M2 increase since 2020 arrived in a single year
The money stock is 4.26 trillion dollars larger than in 2020. Of that, 2.84 trillion came between 2020 and 2021, and the four years since have added half as much again, including the only contraction in the window.
- ConstataçãoEconomic Security
The policy rate has given back less than a fifth of its climb
On annual averages the federal funds rate rose 5.06 percentage points from its 2021 low to its 2024 peak, then fell 0.93. Everything priced against the policy rate is still being priced against most of the increase.
- ConstataçãoWorkforce & Skills
Prime-age participation rose four years running, then held at 83.6 percent
The share of the 25 to 54 population in the labour force went from 81.4 percent in 2020 to 83.6 in 2024, a gain of 2.2 points, and 2025 came in at 83.6 again. The headline rate, which covers the civilian population rather than one age band, gained 0.7 points over the same six readings and fell in the final year.
- ConstataçãoWorkforce & Skills
The quits rate has fallen below where it stood in 2020, while job openings have not
The rate rose from 2.1 percent of employment in 2020 to 2.8 in 2022, then fell in each of the next three years to 2 percent, below where it began. Job openings peaked in the same year and remain above their own 2020 level, so the two halves of the picture no longer agree.
- ConstataçãoEnergy & Power
Crude has fallen back below its 2021 price and the all-commodities index has not
West Texas Intermediate averaged 95 dollars a barrel in 2022 and 65 in 2025, three dollars below its 2021 reading and thirty below the peak. The producer price index for all commodities peaked in the same year, sits 1.6 per cent below that peak, and rose 2.2 per cent in the year crude fell 15.6 per cent.
- ConstataçãoWorkforce & Skills
Broad underemployment has risen in each of the last two years, to its highest reading since 2021
The U-6 rate fell from 13.7 percent of the labour force in 2020 to 6.9 in 2022, held at 6.9 in 2023, and has since risen to 7.5 and then 8. The 1.1 points it has added from that floor exceed the 0.7 the headline unemployment rate has added from its own, but as a multiple of the headline rate the broad measure has narrowed since 2023.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
Four fifths of the rise in new business applications since 2020 came in a single year
The weekly average went from 84 thousand applications in 2020 to 104 thousand in 2021, and the four years since have added five. The 2025 reading of 109 thousand is the highest of the six, and also the third rise in a series that has fallen in the year between each one.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
The debt ratio fell for three years while the debt itself rose in every year the series records
Federal debt as a share of GDP fell from 122.3 percent in 2020 to 117.7 in 2023, then turned and reached 120.7 in 2025. The debt rose in every year the same file records, so what fell in those three years was the ratio and not the obligation.
- ConstataçãoHousing & Urban Development
Two years of decline have taken the mortgage rate 0.21 points off its peak
The thirty-year fixed rate peaked at 6.81 per cent in 2023, and the two annual readings since are 6.72 and 6.6. The federal funds rate ended those same two years 0.81 points lower, nearly four times as far, though it rose before it fell.
- ConstataçãoWorkforce & Skills
The largest fall in job openings came in the year unemployment was lowest
Openings peaked at 11.2 million on the monthly average in 2022 and have fallen in each of the three years since, by 1.9 million, then 1.6 million, then 0.6 million. The largest of those falls landed in 2023, when the unemployment rate read 3.6 percent, the lowest of its six readings, and the smallest landed in 2025, when the rate read 4.3 percent.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
Average hourly earnings rose in every year of the window, and the price level rose by slightly more
Private-sector pay went from 29.36 dollars an hour in 2020 to 36.44 in 2025, a gain of 7.08 dollars with no down year. Restated at 2020 prices using the consumer price index, the 2025 figure is 29.30 dollars, about six cents below where the series started.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
The deficit widened most in the year the debt ratio was lowest
Into 2023 the deficit widened by 313 billion dollars, the largest single-year widening in the window, and federal debt that year stood at 117.7 per cent of GDP, the lowest of its own six readings. Across the five year-on-year moves the two series ran in the same direction three times and in opposite directions twice.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
The dollar index gained 7.6 points in one year and 2.0 in the three that followed
The broad index fell to 113.1 in 2021, rose to 120.7 in 2022, and has since read 120.3, 122.9 and 122.7. Each annual point is the average of that year's observations, so a flat line between two years does not establish a quiet year inside either of them.
- ConstataçãoIndustrial Policy
Half the capacity use gained after 2020 has since been given back
Manufacturing capacity utilisation rose 4.7 points between 2020 and 2022, and 4.4 of them arrived in the first year. It has given back 2.3 points in the three years since.
- ConstataçãoEconomic Security
The consumer price index has not fallen in a single year since 2020
Prices rose more slowly after 2022, and the index kept rising anyway. It stands at 322 against 258.9 five years earlier, a level about 24 percent higher.
- ConstataçãoEconomic Security
Real output per person rose again in 2025, by less than in any earlier year of the window
Output per person has risen at every reading, from 61,127 chained 2017 dollars in 2020 to 69,749 in 2025, but the step into 2025 is 1,068 dollars and it is the smallest of the five. The total the figure is drawn from slowed in the same year, adding 0.49 trillion dollars against 0.64 in each of the two years before it, so the flatter step is not a story about population alone.
- ConstataçãoMacroeconomics & Markets
The low point of this vehicle sales window is 2022, not 2020
The annual rate ran 14.9 million units in 2020, rose to 15.4 in 2021, then fell to 14.2 in 2022, the lowest of the six readings. Three quarters of the recovery since arrived in a single step, and the two years after it added 0.3 million units each.
- ConstataçãoInfrastructure
Nonresidential construction spending rose 14 billion in 2025 after 450 in three years
The annual rate stands at 1,309 billion dollars, the highest of six readings, and the step that brought it there is the smallest rise in the series. Spending on manufacturing plant fell 29 billion in the same year, so a total that barely moved sits on top of a 43-billion rise in everything else.