تعليقاتاستنتاجاتوجهات نظرشروح
الموضوع
Macroeconomics & Markets
Money, prices, public finance and the markets that price them.
80 مادة
المواد
- وجهة نظرFiscal Policy
Ohio levies a corporate income tax and collected 176 thousand dollars from it
In the FY2025 collections file the corporate income tax runs from 32.9 percent of New Hampshire's state taxes to effectively nothing in Ohio, and four states have no such levy at all. The share is a poor guide to how a state treats capital, and it is used as a good one.
- استنتاجMacroeconomics & Markets
The low point of this vehicle sales window is 2022, not 2020
The annual rate ran 14.9 million units in 2020, rose to 15.4 in 2021, then fell to 14.2 in 2022, the lowest of the six readings. Three quarters of the recovery since arrived in a single step, and the two years after it added 0.3 million units each.
- استنتاجInfrastructure
Nonresidential construction spending rose 14 billion in 2025 after 450 in three years
The annual rate stands at 1,309 billion dollars, the highest of six readings, and the step that brought it there is the smallest rise in the series. Spending on manufacturing plant fell 29 billion in the same year, so a total that barely moved sits on top of a 43-billion rise in everything else.
- استنتاجInfrastructure
The ten-year yield has risen in every year since 2020
Six annual observations, five changes, and not one of them negative. In the year the overnight policy rate fell 0.93 points, the ten-year rose again.
- شرحRegional Development
How the jobs in an economic impact claim are counted
An announced job number is the output of a model, not a headcount. By the end you will know the three layers such a figure can contain, the difference between a job and a job-year, and what to ask before setting two claims side by side.
- شرحInfrastructure
What a revenue pledge is and what it does not promise
A revenue pledge hands bondholders one named stream of money and shuts them out of everything else. By the end you will know the order the money leaves the account, the covenant that keeps the stream large enough, and the risks the pledge quietly leaves with the public.
- شرحGeoeconomics
What a central bank currency swap line does
A swap line is a reciprocal credit between two central banks with a reversal date built into it. By the end of this you will know how the chain of exposure runs, why the facility is priced to be unattractive, and why the announced size is rarely the number that matters.
- شرحRegional Development
How state gross domestic product is measured and why the largest states dominate
State GDP counts what is produced inside a state's borders in a single year, valued at that year's prices. By the end you will know what the ranking does and does not tell you about the people who live there.
- استنتاجHousing & Urban Development
Housing units authorised by permit fell in every year after 2021 and are now below their 2020 reading
The series peaked at a monthly average of 1734 thousand units in 2021 and has come down in each of the four years since, to 1431 in 2025. The thirty-year mortgage rate reached its own high in 2023 and has eased in the two years since, and authorisations fell in both of them.
- شرحDevelopment Finance
What a municipal bond pays for and who repays it
A municipal bond is a loan from investors to a government. By the end you will know what the money is allowed to buy, which pocket the repayment comes out of, and why two bonds sold by the same city in the same week can rest on completely different promises.
- تعليقMultilateral Institutions
Sovereign restructuring was built for a world where delay cost the creditor nothing
Reprofiling worked because a payment pushed out ten years cost the creditor nothing in real terms, and in 2020 the implied real ten-year yield was minus 0.60 percent. In 2025 it was plus 1.96 percent, so the same extension now costs a real 17.6 percent, and a process whose only enforcement is peer pressure has to arrange that loss.
- تعليقCapital Markets
A country should build its export credit agency for speed, because it does not set the terms
The base an export credit is priced against moved 3.40 points on the ten-year Treasury between 2020 and 2025, and the policy rate moved 3.34 points from one year to the next. Those are larger than any margin an agency concedes, which leaves the signing date as the one term it owns, and a fast agency is worth having only if it can also refuse quickly.
- استنتاجMacroeconomics & Markets
Producer prices fell in two straight years and are still below the 2022 peak
The all-commodities producer price index reached 264.5 in 2022, fell twice, and at 260.3 in 2025 has not regained it. It also sits 65.9 points above 2020.
- استنتاجEconomic Security
Federal debt rises every year but the annual addition has no trend
The stock goes from 28.7 to 37.1 trillion dollars across five observations. The four annual additions behind that run 2.1, 1.9, 2.6 and 1.8 trillion, and the most recent is the smallest of them.
- شرحInfrastructure
What contingency in a capital budget is for
Contingency is neither padding nor a slush fund. By the end you will know what it is sized against, who is allowed to release it, and why a budget with none in it is not a cheaper budget.
- استنتاجWorkforce & Skills
The fall in unemployment was finished by 2022, and the rate has risen since
The rate dropped from 8.1 percent in 2020 to 3.7 in 2022, reached a low of 3.6 in 2023, and has risen in both readings since, to 4.3.
- استنتاجEconomic Security
American payrolls keep growing, and each year adds less than the one before
Total nonfarm payrolls rose in every annual reading from 2020 to 2025. The size of the rise has fallen three years running, from 6.2 million jobs to 700,000.
- استنتاجEconomic Security
Retail sales rose in every year of the window, counted in dollars
The monthly rate went from 601.2 billion dollars in 2021 to 724.4 in 2025 with no down year. The largest single-year rise landed in the same year as the largest rise in the price level.
- وجهة نظرLabor Markets
Healthcare employs more people at higher median pay than production work, which does not mean a transition has held anywhere
Summed across the fifty-one jurisdictions in the 2025 occupational file, healthcare practitioners outnumber production workers by 1,258,080, and in all fifty-one the practitioner median wage is the higher of the two. The jurisdiction most concentrated in that work has the third-lowest median wage of the fifty-one.
- تعليقRegional Development
Six states raise no income tax and no two replace it the same way
Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming levy no individual income tax. The FY2025 collections file shows what each one leans on instead, and the answer is narrower and less uniform than the shorthand suggests.