ComentariosHallazgosPerspectivasExplicativos
Tema
Sovereign Debt
6 piezas
Piezas
- PerspectivaMacroeconomics & Markets
Fiscal space is created by the denominator, spent at the roll, and bounded by nothing the statistics publish
Federal debt rose 8.4 trillion dollars between 2021 and 2025 and ended 0.2 points lower as a share of GDP, because the denominator grew faster than the stock. A large part of that denominator was price, and the market yield on ten-year Treasury debt went from 0.89 to 4.29 percent.
- HallazgoMacroeconomics & Markets
The debt ratio fell for three years while the debt itself rose in every year the series records
Federal debt as a share of GDP fell from 122.3 percent in 2020 to 117.7 in 2023, then turned and reached 120.7 in 2025. The debt rose in every year the same file records, so what fell in those three years was the ratio and not the obligation.
- HallazgoMacroeconomics & Markets
The deficit widened most in the year the debt ratio was lowest
Into 2023 the deficit widened by 313 billion dollars, the largest single-year widening in the window, and federal debt that year stood at 117.7 per cent of GDP, the lowest of its own six readings. Across the five year-on-year moves the two series ran in the same direction three times and in opposite directions twice.
- ExplicativoDevelopment Finance
What makes a loan concessional
Concessional finance is lending on terms better than the market would offer, measured by a calculation called the grant element. By the end you should know which four terms make a loan concessional, who absorbs the cost, and why the same loan can be scored two different ways.
- ComentarioMultilateral Institutions
Sovereign restructuring was built for a world where delay cost the creditor nothing
Reprofiling worked because a payment pushed out ten years cost the creditor nothing in real terms, and in 2020 the implied real ten-year yield was minus 0.60 percent. In 2025 it was plus 1.96 percent, so the same extension now costs a real 17.6 percent, and a process whose only enforcement is peer pressure has to arrange that loss.
- HallazgoEconomic Security
Federal debt rises every year but the annual addition has no trend
The stock goes from 28.7 to 37.1 trillion dollars across five observations. The four annual additions behind that run 2.1, 1.9, 2.6 and 1.8 trillion, and the most recent is the smallest of them.