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The Cefa Brief

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  • BefundMacroeconomics & Markets

    The debt ratio fell for three years while the debt itself rose in every year the series records

    Federal debt as a share of GDP fell from 122.3 percent in 2020 to 117.7 in 2023, then turned and reached 120.7 in 2025. The debt rose in every year the same file records, so what fell in those three years was the ratio and not the obligation.

  • BefundMacroeconomics & Markets

    The deficit widened most in the year the debt ratio was lowest

    Into 2023 the deficit widened by 313 billion dollars, the largest single-year widening in the window, and federal debt that year stood at 117.7 per cent of GDP, the lowest of its own six readings. Across the five year-on-year moves the two series ran in the same direction three times and in opposite directions twice.

  • BefundEconomic Security

    Federal debt rises every year but the annual addition has no trend

    The stock goes from 28.7 to 37.1 trillion dollars across five observations. The four annual additions behind that run 2.1, 1.9, 2.6 and 1.8 trillion, and the most recent is the smallest of them.