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- ВзглядTrade & Investment
Foreign delegations come to Washington to meet a counterparty that is not there
Twenty of the fifty-one jurisdictions in the federal collections file levy all five of the taxes it names, and two levy only two of them. The body that decides whether a foreign project works is usually a state, and it is not in the room.
- ВзглядEconomic Security
Tell a ministry where to look, not where to go
Advice that names a destination expires the day the evidence moves. The six files behind any recommendation about the American economy carry six different as-of dates, and a ministry that was handed the conclusion cannot tell which one broke.
- ВзглядEconomic Security
Openness and security are being reconciled by narrowing one channel at both ends rather than by closing the economy
Two-way U.S. goods trade with mainland China ran at 58 billion dollars a month in 2022 and 35 billion in 2025, a fall of 39.7 percent, while total imports and exports of goods and services both rose across the same three years. The channel narrowed at both ends, and no series cited here records whether a screen decided any of it.
- ВзглядDevelopment Finance
The development finance architecture measures itself in the lender's currency and the lender's year
Concessional lending is judged against a market rate, and market rates moved: the ten-year Treasury averaged 0.89 percent in 2020 and 4.29 in 2025, and the broad dollar index sits 9.6 points above its lowest reading, in 2021. The complication is that an institution unable to report a figure on signing day cannot be funded, which makes the mismatch a constraint rather than a failure of will.
- ВзглядEconomic Security
Commodity dependence is an exposure in the budget, and the conversion that ends it runs slower than the price cycle
Texas raises more severance tax than any other state, 8.00 billion dollars, and that is 8.9 percent of what Texas collects; the same tax is 47.2 percent of North Dakota's. The exposure therefore sits in the size of the rest of the base, and the spending that would widen one moves slowly: factory construction rose for four years, then fell.
- ВзглядStrategic Technology
Technical standards decide admission where a tariff only sets a price, and nothing in the record counts admission
Goods exports to mainland China fell from 13 billion dollars a month in 2022 to 9 in 2025, and imports from 45 to 26. The series record that both legs shrank and attribute the fall to nothing, which is why a rulebook written years earlier cannot be told apart from a duty imposed last quarter.
- ВзглядTariffs & Trade Agreements
A bilateral arrangement locks in a counterparty, which is the part of a trading position most likely to change
Goods imports from China fell from a monthly average of 45 billion dollars in 2022 to 26 in 2025, and exports to it from 13 to 9, while total imports and exports of goods and services each rose by 0.28 trillion dollars across the same three years. No series on this site describes an arrangement of either kind, so what each locks in is argued here and not measured.
- ВзглядGovernance & Institutions
Reform of a multilateral institution changes behaviour only when it changes what the institution must count
Reform is argued as a question of votes and chairs, while behaviour is set by the balance sheet, the appropriation and the measure that decides eligibility. The statistics that would test any of it are national, and this site holds no comparable published series for the institutions themselves.
- ВзглядTrade & Investment
A foreign ministry cannot spend attention on fifty states, and should not try
California holds 39,431,263 residents and Wyoming 587,618, and each sends the same two senators to Washington. A ministry with a finite diary has to decide which of those two facts it is optimising against, because the rankings they produce are not the same.
- ВзглядDevelopment Finance
Financial depth changes what capital costs and not what a country is able to build
The policy rate moved 4.94 points between 2021 and 2023 and the thirty-year mortgage rate moved 3.85 over the same two years, which is what a deep system does. Across the same window manufacturing output stayed below its 2017 base in every reading.