The Cefa Brief

ComentáriosConstataçõesPerspectivasExplicativos

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Correspondem a esses filtros: 4 textos

Textos

  • PerspectivaMacroeconomics & Markets

    Two participation rates moved apart, and that gap is where ageing would enter the arithmetic

    Headline participation gained 0.7 points between 2020 and 2025 while participation inside the 25-54 band gained 2.2, and the two rates divide by different populations. That gap is the shape an ageing population would take in a labour statistic, but none of these series counts anybody's age, so the shape is all it is.

  • ComentárioMigration & Demography

    The labour-force series do not record who arrived, and participation is not a substitute

    No file on this site records a worker's place of birth, so nothing here can attribute a share of recent capacity to migration. The rate usually offered as a stand-in fell 0.2 points between 2023 and 2025 while prime-age participation rose 0.3 points to its six-year high of 83.6 percent, a divergence the two different populations can produce with nobody arriving at all.

  • ConstataçãoWorkforce & Skills

    The quits rate has fallen below where it stood in 2020, while job openings have not

    The rate rose from 2.1 percent of employment in 2020 to 2.8 in 2022, then fell in each of the next three years to 2 percent, below where it began. Job openings peaked in the same year and remain above their own 2020 level, so the two halves of the picture no longer agree.

  • ConstataçãoEconomic Security

    Real output per person rose again in 2025, by less than in any earlier year of the window

    Output per person has risen at every reading, from 61,127 chained 2017 dollars in 2020 to 69,749 in 2025, but the step into 2025 is 1,068 dollars and it is the smallest of the five. The total the figure is drawn from slowed in the same year, adding 0.49 trillion dollars against 0.64 in each of the two years before it, so the flatter step is not a story about population alone.