The Cefa Brief

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  • PerspectivesInfrastructure

    The boundary of a public investment appraisal is drawn where the measurement stops

    The capital cost in a public investment appraisal has a published national counterpart, nonresidential construction spending at 1309 billion dollars a year; the benefit stream it is weighed against has none. The discount rate decides the rest: at 4.29 percent a dollar arriving in year thirty is worth 28.4 cents, and at the 0.89 percent of 2020 it was worth 76.7 cents.

  • PerspectivesIndustrial Policy

    Public capital is allocated by the form of the claim, and the only contest the statistics show is inside one construction total

    Spending on manufacturing plant went from 75 billion dollars in 2020 to 244 in 2024 and 215 in 2025, while housing units authorised by permit ended the window 48 thousand below where they began. Neither total separates public money from private, and nothing in the record decomposes the federal balance into the claims that competed for it.

  • PerspectivesInfrastructure

    An infrastructure delivery model allocates risk, capital and blame, and it reduces none of the three

    A delivery model is a contract about where the risk, the capital and the accountability sit, and only two of those can be priced and sold. The ten-year yield moved 3.4 points in five years while the record of what was built stayed one undifferentiated line, so the comparison between models is one the public record cannot check.

  • PerspectivesInfrastructure

    Shovel-ready is a wage question before it is a permitting one

    Texas and California employ almost exactly the same number of construction and extraction workers. The median wage in one is 49,170 dollars and in the other 71,670. A national cost per mile that ignores that is not a cost estimate.