The Cefa Brief
CommentaryInsightsPerspectivesExplainers
Archive
Matching these filters: 2 pieces
Pieces
- CommentaryMultilateral Institutions
Sovereign restructuring was built for a world where delay cost the creditor nothing
Reprofiling worked because a payment pushed out ten years cost the creditor nothing in real terms, and in 2020 the implied real ten-year yield was minus 0.60 percent. In 2025 it was plus 1.96 percent, so the same extension now costs a real 17.6 percent, and a process whose only enforcement is peer pressure has to arrange that loss.
- CommentaryEconomic Security
An economy that exports eleven percent of its output is hard to coerce
The Bureau of Economic Analysis puts exports at 11 percent of GDP. That number disappoints anyone who wants trade to be the growth engine and reassures anyone who thinks a trade fight is cheap. Both readings make the same mistake about what an average is.